Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven

feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:52:26 PST

First, it is now up to 62.0% based on the last 2 years on NumberCrunch's number unless he publishes the missing stats:

NUMBERCRUNCH WEEK 9 INFORMATION
5 - 3 AND 4 -3 FARING
YEAR	W	L	Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:33:56 PST Last year after 8 weeks: 0 Loss teams = 37 1 Loss = 72 2 Loss = 94 qualified = 203 3 Loss = 77 x 61.9% (per NumberCrunch) = 48 Total of 251 This turned out to be exactly right as 5 (5-4) teams were added. This year - to be updated as more results come in for Saturday 0 Loss teams = 38 1 Loss = 71 2 Loss = 71 qualified = 180 3 Loss = 79 x 61.9% (per NumberCrunch) = 49 Total of 229 Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 00:30:01 PST Early yet (1 am) and about 70 teams have not reported scores… should be any minute now. Six win (or more) qualifiers stand at 172. At the moment there are 17 (5-2) teams that could join them. As well as a couple of (4-2) that may win their 5th/8 game schedule. Another 46 are poised at (5-3). That's 244 if you're keeping up. Then 106 teams at 4-x including 26 who haven't reported their 8th game yet. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 21:48:20 PST Auldschool, I agree with everything in Div-4 except Kingsford (4-3). They play Gladstone (6-1) tonight. I predict they will lose and cause a further adjustment to this grouping. Awesome work my friend. Sincerely, bronco This is exactly why AuldSchool shouldn't post his information. People still can't read. BTW Kingsford beat Gladstone tonight. This is why I like AuldSchool's information since he doesn't speculate on future games. Predictions are fun and everything, but lists such as AuldSchool's need to be what it is. For the record 3 out of 5 people in my blog picked Kingsford to win. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (acng90bronco) — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 15:41:05 PST Auldschool, I agree with everything in Div-4 except Kingsford (4-3). They play Gladstone (6-1) tonight. I predict they will lose and cause a further adjustment to this grouping. Awesome work my friend. Sincerely, bronco Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:13:18 PST *This is not a prediction of how I feel it will come out, but just following the MHSAA as if teams were announced today!* Do people actually know how to read on here? I am beginning to think that several of you ought to go back to school to learn how to read. AuldSchool might as well not publish his information since some of you can't read. For the last time, this is how it would look like if the playoffs STARTED TODAY!!! This is not how it will look like after week 9. *I did challenge AuldSchool on...* Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (superwink) — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 15:35:22 PST First off Pickford (3-3) is not going to get in, they are playing Cedarville (7-0) this Friday and that will put them out of their misery. Also Marine City Cardinal Mooney (3-3) has to win their remaining 2 games of their 8 Game Schedule and one of them is against Waldron (5-2) another team in need of a Victory to qualify for a spot. You also have all 9 (4 - 3) Teams getting in, which is very unrealistic, here's why: Kinde North Huron is (4-3) and they play Peck (5-2) and (4-3) Au Gres Sims, so there is a strong chance neither Kinde North Huron nor Au-Gres Sims will automatically qualify with 6 wins. Johannesburg Lewiston (4-3) has to play Gaylord St Mary (5-2) week 9 and will be hovering at (5-4) at best. Iron Mountain North Dickinson (5-2) has to play Rapid River (5-2) week 8 and Cedarville (7-0) Week 9 and there is a good chance they are still stuck on 5 wins at the end of the season. There are Currently 13 Schools Qualified with enough wins with enrollment under (243... Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:13:46 PST I don't have much to do with that. I just make suggestions on how to change the pins around based on the map. Plus the only way I helped AuldSchool was to say that there were too many Class C teams in division 8. Other than that, it is all AuldSchool's and SnoozeToMe's work. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Searn) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 11:54:17 PST TNTDyno wrote: Searn's site and Auld getting some pub in a Jackson Citizen Patriot blog: http://blog.mlive.com/cit...r_grass_lake_manches.html Nice work, guys. I find it interesting that the blog author (Mike Pryson) mentions Searn's site as the place for playoff information without mentioning mlive. Nice find TNT ... And to all those contributing ... Auld, Snooze, Mr. NCAA, etc. ... Another Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (BiasedGuy) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 09:47:17 PST That is sweet as heck. Nice find TNT. Nice work Auld, Snooze, and NCAA. And nice work Searn. That is way cool. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (TNTDyno) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 08:41:06 PST Searn's site and Auld getting some pub in a Jackson Citizen Patriot blog: http://blog.mlive.com/cit...r_grass_lake_manches.html Nice work, guys. I find it interesting that the blog author (Mike Pryson) mentions Searn's site as the place for playoff information without mentioning mlive. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 03:46:55 PST Cross out Det CC from the above. I keep forgeting they are 4-2 not 4-3, I was looking at the 6 point margin they have in CPA. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Searn) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:58:11 PST AuldSchool wrote: bulldog3 wrote: Can they {Burton Bentley} get in at 5-4 or do they have to win out? Found this had been missed as the header doesn't show up well on my browser. Looked at them and they are sitting 5th in class C if it was to be decided on play-off points. It looks like one win will keep them in the mix, but with Burton Atherton only having a single win I'd be worried about being passed as five teams are right behind them. A win against Annapolis would definitely put them in as a 5-4 team. I'd really say that Det CC, Kingsford, MH Bishop Foley and BC All Saints are the only team that looks like they can count on getting in at 5-4. Everybody else should make winning out their... Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (applefan84) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:56:39 PST AuldSchool wrote: Mr NCAA wrote: Basically you just needed to open up the CPA links in the stat forum to find your answer. Here it is all but one year since 1999: Number of MHSAA schools playing football 2003 = 621 2004 = 625 2005 = count them on the file since the SEN is only listed 2005 = 625 My database does the counting, and that is the first thing I check to make sure the teams agree with what the MHSAA has. What's interesting about it is that it is virtually static. Look how many years have had it down to the same NUMBER: 619. There have been a couple of jumps (like up to 625) but overall it has been very consistent. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:33:12 PST Mr NCAA wrote: Basically you just needed to open up the CPA links in the stat forum to find your answer. Here it is all but one year since 1999: Number of MHSAA schools playing football 2003 = 621 2004 = 625 2005 = count them on the file since the SEN is only listed 2005 = 625 My database does the counting, and that is the first thing I check to make sure the teams agree with what the MHSAA has. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:22:45 PST Perhaps I can work on that particular project on Wednesday or Thursday so we can have it for the last week of the season. D3 will be hard since there is a ton of Class A and B teams in D3 each and every year. I could do the other divisions easily. E. G. D8 has Class C teams in it some years. This means I just have to check the other years for Class D being in D7. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:23:55 PST bulldog3 wrote: Can they {Burton Bentley} get in at 5-4 or do they have to win out? Found this had been missed as the header doesn't show up well on my browser. Looked at them and they are sitting 5th in class C if it was to be decided on play-off points. It looks like one win will keep them in the mix, but with Burton Atherton only having a single win I'd be worried about being passed as five teams are right behind them. A win against Annapolis would definitely put them in as a 5-4 team. I'd really say that Det CC, Kingsford, MH Bishop Foley and BC All Saints are the only team that looks like they can count on getting in at 5-4. Everybody else should make winning out their plan. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 17:10:11 PST First, yuku went dead on my last post doing maintenance work. I didn't really look at the MHSAA website regarding Gobles and Schoolcraft since I like the left guard routine LOL!!! Schoolcraft has a potential edge since they play another Class B team. That is why Gobles has the higher opponents winning percentage since they have the same CPA number. Schoolcraft has played something like 3 Class B teams so far while Gobles has played all Class C teams. Teams do get more bonus points playing higher classes, but then loses any tiebreaker such as this one so there's the downside to playing teams with a higher classification than your school. AuldSchool, I sent you a private message earlier so you might went to check your inbox. Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:45:01 PST Mr NCAA wrote: Since AuldSchool provides his projections, I'm going to provide him some more stats next year. I provided how many Class C teams ended up in D8 on a year to year basis on Searn's forum on a post. So I will try to do that for the A, B, C, and D teams in different divisions (3, 6, 5, and 7 respecitively). So this should help him in the future to make his projections slightly more accurate. Would you use my data to help you do your projections next year or shouldn't I do that particular project during the offseason? Those would be helpful, I also found I did save NumberCrunch's data -2007's number of x win teams - last year, and I'm going to start organizing some of the history I have to look at trends. Week 7 I've always found a little... Re: Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 16:23:42 PST SnoozeToMe wrote: Auld, Did you have a tie-breaker for choosing Gobles over Schoolcraft? Gobles was your last (13th by the way, not 12th) class C school in, while Schoolcraft was left out. Both are 4-3; both have a 39.143 POP. Their remaining schedules are very similar too. Enrollment? Alphabetical? Coin flip? Just curious. The last tie-breaker - officially - is their opponents winning % and Gobles has 55.6% Schoolcraft 49.2%. Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Seven feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 16:31:05 PST For seven weeks we have 127 teams that have qualified with 6 or 7 wins. Added all the 5 win teams (77) and two teams with (4-2) & an eight game schedule (Det CC & Bark River Harris). For the remaining 50 slots: Took 10 D teams - this seems like too many by about two. But I looked at the schedules for all the D teams and it is possible, though not likely. Now we spilt the remaining 40 by 3 to get: class A 14, class B 13, class C 12. This is not a prediction of how I feel it will come out, but just following the MHSAA as if teams were announced today! Next week we will know much better how the Div VII, Div VIII split is likely to come out.