Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 02:45:22 PST

My list of what would be the field if all the favorites win:

http://www.michiganhsfootball.com/topic/5855

No, there will not be a list of what if all the favorites lose!

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:18:14 PST

Chelsea just lost to one of the weaker teams in the league this year though. So I wouldn't count out TB just yet. They could use that film to their advantage this week. Originally I would pick Chelsea in the game, but then came the bad loss.

Plus Battle Creek Central still has a star RB or is he injured like Baker?

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (prepseer) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:07:07 PST

scottramfan wrote:

I got Rockford, TC West, and Grand Ledge. Big question will be who the fourth will be. I don't figure it will be WO, GH, or Holt. Could it be Howell?

Right on. I've got Howell as the 4th team. For a look at the entire Div. 1 field go to www.prepseer.com

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (prepseer) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:04:22 PST

I don't see Temperance Bedford making it. They will not beat Chelsea and they won't have enough points to get in at 5-4. I have DeLaSalle as the last team in Division I.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:20:18 PST

One Class D playoff team had their season wiped out due to forfeits: Sterling Heights Parkway Christian. So in theory it would have been one more Class D team making the playoffs if they followed the rules.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (jackstrong) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:11:00 PST

What about Bishop Foley. With my calculations from the MHSAA if they were to win they would be the highest 5 - 4 team in Class C.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (applefan84) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:54:15 PST

Auld: how "nimble" is your method for the FW Proj? It'd be interesting to see how things shift after the games on Thursday roll in, and again with the Friday games.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:16:26 PST

treeguy07 wrote:
What the - ? D8 for Mendon?? I guess I don't understand.

See my reply just above to Heisman84. The breakdown list is where we currently stand. Will be doing a 'favorites win projection' in the next day or so.

And to answer Mr NCAA the early look at the FW Proj would include Saugatuck.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (GHSfootball1990) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:14:38 PST

treeguy07 wrote:
What the - ? D8 for Mendon?? I guess I don't understand.

It is just the way things worked out this year based on who qualified. I think it has a lot to due with the fact less and less D schools a fielding teams now days.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:11:38 PST

Hiesman84 wrote:
Auld,

could you quickly review how you come to your number of "D" teams to add? I've run my own numbers (no predictions, just "as we stand) and I have the D6/D7 line with Grass Lake tops in 7 and Addison as the bottom of 6, where as you have them both in 6. It really changes the maps with this one difference. Just curious, I know you have a method of adding "D" teams that I have not done.

What it basically comes down to is that there were not enough D teams at 5-3. I took them all. And it looks like that will be the case next week. D teams look like they will have about 28 teams when it is all decided.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:04:27 PST

seniorparent wrote:
Sorry for the trival questoins, but Bedford hasnt been in the playoffs since 1990, and not knowing how all the playoff stuff is determined, what do ytou think Bedfords chances of getting in at 5-4 are?

I concur with TNTDyno, Temperence Bedford needs to win to get in, they are too low on POP for Class A for comfort.

It is possible that they may sneak in at 5-4 if all the teams they beat win on Friday. They are sitting 12th so if seven teams above them win (which is likely) they will be in the pack of teams that will be watching scoreboards.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (treeguy07) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:02:01 PST

What the - ? D8 for Mendon?? I guess I don't understand.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (TNTDyno) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:32:54 PST

seniorparent,

Bedford likely has to win to make it as they look shy on points. Among 5-3 Class A teams, they are currently 11th in playoff points. I didn't look at the 4-4 teams they would have to contend with if some of them win to get to 5-4.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (Hiesman84) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:03:52 PST

Auld,

could you quickly review how you come to your number of "D" teams to add? I've run my own numbers (no predictions, just "as we stand) and I have the D6/D7 line with Grass Lake tops in 7 and Addison as the bottom of 6, where as you have them both in 6. It really changes the maps with this one difference. Just curious, I know you have a method of adding "D" teams that I have not done.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (seniorparent) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:03:42 PST

Sorry for the trival questoins, but Bedford hasnt been in the playoffs since 1990, and not knowing how all the playoff stuff is determined, what do ytou think Bedfords chances of getting in at 5-4 are?

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (bulldog3) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:11:05 PST

4 out of Burton Bentleys 5 wins will win this week. Based on that you think they will make it even if they lose to Dearborn Annapolis?? Also, are they pretty much a lock for Div. 6?? What teams would I watch for to have them bump down into Div. 7?

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 06:30:39 PST

Without checking on the team in between, then it appears that Saugatuck could be D8 as well based on your projection.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 02:30:36 PST

Sorry, thanks, I had to debug the work (projecting winners) database. Rather than importing class from the MHSAA list it was recalculating it (maybe checking?) using old class breaks.

I had both Pittsford & St Ignace as D schools. There are 24 D + 4 (5-4) = 28, so need 4 class C's. Mendon still d8.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (Mr NCAA) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 01:43:23 PST

Mendon looks to be Div. VIII. Likely 26 class D schools will have 6 wins. Plus 4 teams by POP. Leaves 2 slots for class C.

Division 8
Class D with 6 or more wins = 26
Class D 5 - 4 teams = 4
Class C = 2
TOTAL = 32

The two from Class C will be Pittsford and St. Ignace. Mendon will be in D7 based on your info.

Re: Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 01:30:05 PST

Feel more comfortable with the above breaks. Have looked at the favorite win projections.

Some of the more persistent questions.

Warren DeLaSalle looks to be Div II. Milford, Ike, Liv. Franklin have good POP averages and will push DLS to at least 33rd. Holt over Davison would drop them to 34th.

Kenowa Hills & Fenton still on the II/III bubble. More likely both III. Holt win would likely push them D III. As both Holt & Davison get in. Holt needs a win.

Burton Bentley very close to being in as a (5-4). I don't totally recalculate the POP averages. I just add the points for the wk 9 opp and divide by nine. So I am ignoring prior opp wins in the ninth week. A win by an opponent that a team has beaten is roughly equal to a point in POP average. Ishpeming, Clinton, Burton Bentley, Morley Stanwood, AP Cabrini, Charlevoix, Ithaca, Cass City, & Rudyard could all be...

Playoff Division Breakdown - Week Eight

feeds@kickapps.com (AuldSchool) — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 14:26:54 PST

These are not refined. 184 in, then 9 D's at 5-3, 21 each class. Late for a 5/6th grade party watching 'The Express.' I'll be back at 6pm.

Need to look at Div VIII. See how many D's can be eligible at 5-4 next week. Wait till 8 are posted.

Can someone please post this link on all four mLive boards? I'm missing the hot dogs, but I'll make the movie! Thanks in advance!

The Express - was a very good movie about Ernie Davis of Syracuse - Cleveland Browns. Mostly about the 1960 season where Syracuse #1 and Texas #2 played for National Championship. Ernie who followed Jim Brown at Syracuse was still faced with many of the problems of Jackie Robinson as they went to the Cotton Bowl in segregated Texas. Trying to avoid plot spoilers. Rated PG (for BS & s***) safe...