Some 2009 playoff statistics

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Mr NCAA

Some 2009 playoff statistics

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10/31/09 9:57 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

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Here is the chart:

FIRST ROUND
HIGHER SEEDED TEAM WINNING	W	L	PCT.
Division 1	13	3	0.813
Division 2	9	7	0.563
Division 3	10	6	0.625
Division 4	12	4	0.750
Division 5	13	3	0.813
Division 6	14	2	0.875
Division 7	15	1	0.938
Division 8	11	5	0.688
TOTAL	97	31	0.758
Undefeated teams at home	27	3	0.900
#1 Seeds	53	11	0.828

On mdead the Romeo guy was just ignorant, but I expected as much since it is mdead after all. Basically undefeated teams at home is THE best category to be in, not ands ifs or buts.. It is a significant percentage difference since that was an extra 4.26 wins extra for the undefeated teams at home.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/31/09 10:00 PM. Edited 1 time.

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Mr NCAA

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10/31/09 11:36 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I should add it to my score spreadsheet but that made the #2 seeds 44 - 20 = .688. So it pays to be a #1 seed as well by a ton.

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Mr NCAA

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11/01/09 1:00 PM

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3 of the undefeated teams play on the road this week. If the 90% figure holds up, then 2 or 3 of the undefeated teams should lose in round two at home.

27 - 3 = 24
24 * .1 = 2.4 teams losing at home

ON MY OFFICIAL LIST
Orchard Lake St. Mary over Melvindale
Ravenna beats Potterville

SOME OTHER POSSIBLE = 1 of these should hit most likely
Mt. Pleasant over Linden
Hamilton over Three Rivers
Berrien Springs over Wyoming Kelloggsville
Muskegon Catholic Central over Climax Scotts

If you want to put Romeo over Clarkston on your list, that's fine with me. I just think that the others on my list are more probable.

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Mr NCAA

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11/01/09 5:43 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

Here is another playoff stat for week 1:

#1 Seeds that weren't undefeated

26

8

0.765

So #1 seeds were just above the average pct. if they weren't undefeated.

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Mr NCAA

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11/07/09 2:27 PM

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3 out of my 4 Friday undefeated teams hit the dusty trail. Not too bad after that 90% stat for week 1. 2 more games today though.

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AuldSchool

How the divisions stack up

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11/13/09 2:03 PM

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Have been meaning to post this since selection Sunday.

The standard deviation should be some indicator of how competitive the division should be, but now that I think about it, the sd should be a % of the play-off point average. I'll post those in a bit.

Divison	Win%	Wins	Losses	POP Ave	StDev
Div I	78.4%	225	62	87.816	18.016
Div II	73.2%	210	77	77.687	10.647
Div III	79.7%	228	58	82.484	16.275
Div IV	76.3%	219	68	72.079	13.031
Div V	78.5%	226	62	69.273	15.003
Div VI	77.1%	222	66	62.388	13.244
Div VII	79.4%	228	59	59.932	13.412
Div VIII	74.4%	212	73	51.550	10.438
		221.25	65.625	70.401	13.758

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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11/13/09 2:12 PM

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Expresses the standard deviation as a % of the play-off point average. In the previous post it looked like Div VIII had the tightest grouping, but really it looks like Div II wins the 'most competitive' and ' Div VII the least.

Divison	POP Ave	StDev
Div I	87.816	18.016	20.5%
Div II	77.687	10.647	13.7%
Div III	82.484	16.275	19.7%
Div IV	72.079	13.031	18.1%
Div V	69.273	15.003	21.7%
Div VI	62.388	13.244	21.2%
Div VII	59.932	13.412	22.4%
Div VIII	51.550	10.438	20.2%

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EastGuRu

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11/14/09 12:03 PM

AuldSchool wrote:

Expresses the standard deviation as a % of the play-off point average. In the previous post it looked like Div VIII had the tightest grouping, but really it looks like Div II wins the 'most competitive' and ' Div VII the least.

Divison POP Ave StDev

Div I 87.816 18.016 20.5%

Div II 77.687 10.647 13.7%

Div III 82.484 16.275 19.7%

Div IV 72.079 13.031 18.1%

Div V 69.273 15.003 21.7%

Div VI 62.388 13.244 21.2%

Div VII 59.932 13.412 22.4%

Div VIII 51.550 10.438 20.2%

I find this interesting in that it seems to mirror the common sentiment that, as the year has panned out, D1 was the toughest, followed by D3, and D2 was somewhat down, but of course, still stronger than D4 and below. maybe those POP Averages really do translate to a "real" estimate of strength.

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Some 2009 playoff statistics

Some 2009 playoff statistics