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Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Three C•O•R•R•E•C•T•E•D

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AuldSchool	Playoff Division Breakdown — Week Three C•O•R•R•E•C•T•E•D		Lead	[-]
Junior Posts: 16 09/10/07 2:23 AM	Tags : None RE-CALCULATED Monday 9:30pm with MHSAA Corrections. CORRECTED LISTING BELOW While this is still unofficial - teams have until Tuesday to make corrections - and is of course very early in the process, everybody wants to know about the playoffs. Still six weeks away from 'knowing' who is in, and who is out, it is not to early to start the speculation process. Since the season is nine weeks long I take the number of wins and multiply by three. (Obviously this will not hold true, I know that, you know that, please don't tell me.) This is not a prognostication, this is how the divisions would break if today were 'Selection Sunday' - which we all know it's not. Taking all teams with three wins as 'In' (127 teams) plus three 2-0 teams with 8 game schedules, we need 126 teams with 2-1 records. There are 192 teams. Choosing by playoff point average we take all 14 D teams, and apportion A with 38, B & C with 37. Ties among teams with the same playoff average are broken with rounds of Rock-Paper-Scissors at MHSAA headquarters by each team's starting left offensive guard. Using the MHSAA's rules for dividing the divisions by size this is how they break down. Please wait until all 8 are posted before commenting, then have at it. Questions will be answered, so ask away. Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:31 PM. Edited 3 times.
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AuldSchool		#1	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 17 09/10/07 2:31 AM	Division I 1 Sterling Heights Stevenson 2789 2-1 59.333 A 2 Clarkston 2575 3-0 90.667 A 3 Howell 2521 3-0 88.000 A 4 Rockford 2493 3-0 88.000 A 5 Macomb Dakota 2465 3-0 88.000 A 6 Dearborn Fordson 2337 3-0 82.667 A 7 Monroe 2271 2-1 59.000 A 8 Livonia Churchill 2261 3-0 80.000 A 9 Livonia Stevenson 2133 3-0 80.000 A 10 Troy 2120 2-1 59.000 A 11 Wayne Memorial 2112 2-1 58.667 A 12 Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 2096 2-1 64.333 A 13 West Bloomfield 2065 2-1 59.333 A 14 Southfield-Lathrup 2026 3-0 82.667 A 15 Detroit Denby 2021 2-1 61.667 A 16 Utica Ford 2020 2-1 59.000 A 17 Grandville 2014 2-1 59.333 A 18 Holt 1969 3-0 93.333 A 19 Grand Haven 1944 3-0 93.333 A 20 Novi 1933 2-1 56.333 A 21 Royal Oak 1930 2-1 59.333 A 22 Canton 1923 2-1 59.000 A 23 Detroit Catholic Central 1914 3-0 82.667 A 24 Romeo 1855 2-1 62.000 A 25 Oak Park 1841 2-1 58.667 A 26 Warren Cousino 1830 3-0 96.000 A 27 Saline 1826 3-0 80.000 A 28 Lansing Everett 1810 3-0 82.667 A 29 Port Huron 1749 3-0 85.333 A 30 Milford 1741 2-1 59.333 A 31 South Lyon 1715 2-1 56.667 A 32 Midland 1704 2-1 64.667 A Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:03 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#2	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 18 09/10/07 2:34 AM	Division II 33 Brownstown Woodhaven 1701 2-1 61.333 A 34 Saginaw Heritage 1693 2-1 59.000 A 35 Fraser 1690 2-1 56.667 A 36 Bay City Central 1689 2-1 56.333 A 37 Dearborn 1688 3-0 85.333 A 38 Warren DeLaSalle 1680 3-0 77.333 A 39 Kalamazoo Central 1670 2-1 56.333 A 40 Southgate Anderson 1651 2-1 59.333 A 41 Muskegon 1646 3-0 88.000 A 42 Grosse Pointe North 1611 2-1 56.667 A 43 White Lake Lakeland 1574 3-0 88.000 A 44 Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 1535 3-0 77.333 A 45 Flint Southwestern 1533 3-0 85.333 A 46 Hudsonville 1520 3-0 90.667 A 47 Detroit King 1513 3-0 85.333 A 48 Rochester Adams 1485 3-0 90.667 A 49 Taylor Kennedy 1483 2-1 56.333 A 50 Okemos 1396 2-1 56.667 A 51 Wyandotte Roosevelt 1392 3-0 82.667 A 52 Bay City Western 1375 3-0 82.667 A 53 Birmingham Brother Rice 1372 2-1 59.000 A 54 Swartz Creek 1363 2-1 56.667 A 55 Pontiac Central 1318 2-1 61.333 A 56 Detroit Northwestern 1299 3-0 82.667 A 57 Portage Northern 1297 2-1 56.667 A 58 Lowell 1289 2-1 56.667 A 59 Oxford 1265 3-0 80.000 A 60 Detroit Central 1250 2-0 72.000 A 61 Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills 1228 2-1 59.333 A 62 Farmington Hills Harrison 1220 2-1 59.333 A 63 Caledonia 1210 3-0 82.667 A 64 Hazel Park 1148 2-1 56.333 A Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:04 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#3	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 19 09/10/07 2:37 AM	Division III 65 Ferndale 1147 2-1 56.667 A 66 Allen Park 1133 3-0 88.000 A 67 Ypsilanti 1127 2-1 59.333 A 68 Adrian 1123 3-0 85.333 A 69 Mt Pleasant 1117 3-0 85.333 A 70 Lansing Sexton 1105 2-1 56.667 A 71 Niles 1078 2-1 56.000 A 72 Gaylord 1076 3-0 77.333 A 73 Orchard Lake St Mary 1062 2-0 85.333 A 74 Jackson Northwest 1054 2-1 56.667 B 75 Cedar Springs 1041 3-0 82.667 B 76 Carleton Airport 1037 3-0 77.333 B 77 St Joseph 1035 3-0 80.000 B 78 Detroit Renaissance 1032 2-1 51.333 B 79 Lansing Waverly 1026 2-1 54.000 B 80 Wayland Union 1026 2-1 56.667 B 81 St Clair 1024 3-0 64.000 B 82 Chelsea 1005 3-0 88.000 B 83 Cadillac 999 2-1 45.833 B 84 Trenton 997 2-1 51.000 B 85 Sault Ste Marie 996 3-0 74.667 B 86 Byron Center 989 3-0 77.333 B 87 East Grand Rapids 985 3-0 74.667 B 88 Fruitport 982 2-1 45.333 B 89 Warren Fitzgerald 978 2-1 56.333 B 90 Richland Gull Lake 972 3-0 74.667 B 91 Stevensville Lakeshore 972 3-0 80.000 B 92 Hastings 965 3-0 69.333 B 93 Fowlerville 945 3-0 66.667 B 94 Haslett 945 3-0 74.667 B 95 Bangor John Glenn 944 2-0 74.667 B 96 Linden 943 3-0 93.333 B Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:05 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#4	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 20 09/10/07 2:39 AM	Divison IV 97 DeWitt 903 3-0 64.000 B 98 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Eastern 894 2-1 46.000 B 99 Highland Park 880 2-1 54.000 B 100 Melvindale 866 3-0 77.333 B 101 Ogemaw Heights 854 3-0 69.333 B 102 Holland Christian 848 2-1 62.000 B 103 Milan 831 2-1 43.333 B 104 Allegan 824 2-1 46.000 B 105 Marine City 803 2-1 51.333 B 106 Hudsonville Unity Christian 799 2-1 43.333 B 107 Detroit Crockett 797 2-1 59.000 B 108 Comstock 789 3-0 69.333 B 109 Fremont 789 3-0 66.667 B 110 Corunna 772 3-0 69.333 B 111 Remus Chippewa Hills 768 3-0 69.333 B 112 Madison Heights Lamphere 757 2-1 43.333 B 113 Zeeland West 756 3-0 72.000 B 114 Lansing Catholic 754 3-0 69.333 B 115 Cheboygan 752 2-1 56.667 B 116 Inkster 750 3-0 74.667 B 117 Grand Rapids South Christian 748 2-1 45.667 B 118 Algonac 747 2-1 51.333 B 119 Detroit Douglass 735 2-1 48.333 B 120 South Haven 729 2-1 48.667 B 121 Alma 720 3-0 72.000 B 122 Flint Powers Catholic 703 2-1 56.667 B 123 Yale 698 2-1 46.000 B 124 Richmond 695 3-0 74.667 B 125 Belding 687 2-1 51.333 B 126 Coloma 673 3-0 53.333 B 127 Williamston 672 3-0 66.667 B 128 Dowagiac 666 2-1 45.667 B Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:06 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#5	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 21 09/10/07 2:42 AM	Division V 129 Midland Bullock Creek 658 2-1 43.333 B 130 Detroit Country Day 650 2-1 56.333 B 131 Paw Paw 644 2-1 43.333 B 132 Gladwin 637 2-1 43.333 B 133 Grand Rapids West Catholic 636 3-0 77.333 B 134 Onsted 629 3-0 64.000 B 135 Grayling 628 3-0 64.000 B 136 Standish-Sterling 627 3-0 64.000 B 137 Chesaning 607 3-0 64.000 B 138 Almont 606 3-0 74.667 B 139 Essexville Garber 606 3-0 69.333 B 140 Stanton Central Montcalm 606 3-0 64.000 B 141 Saginaw Swan Valley 602 2-1 46.000 B 142 Newaygo 596 2-1 48.667 B 143 Madison Heights Madison 593 3-0 88.000 B 144 Birch Run 589 2-1 46.000 B 145 Jackson Lumen Christi 587 2-1 64.667 B 146 Muskegon Heights 581 3-0 72.000 B 147 Frankenmuth 568 3-0 74.667 B 148 Menominee 559 3-0 84.000 B 149 Millington 555 3-0 69.333 B 150 Ida 546 2-1 43.000 B 151 Erie-Mason 539 2-1 48.667 B 152 Lake Fenton 537 3-0 69.333 B 153 Muskegon Oakridge 537 3-0 58.667 B 154 Parchment 532 2-1 48.667 B 155 Buchanan 515 3-0 61.333 B 156 Elk Rapids 514 3-0 58.667 B 157 Montrose 512 2-1 46.000 B 158 Hillsdale 506 2-1 53.333 C 159 Cass City 503 2-1 35.000 C 160 Negaunee 499 2-1 40.667 C Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:07 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#6	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 22 09/10/07 2:44 AM	Division VI 161 Shelby 493 2-1 37.667 C 162 Albion 491 3-0 58.667 C 163 Leroy Pine River 475 2-1 40.667 C 164 Kingsley 470 2-1 43.000 C 165 Houghton 468 2-1 38.000 C 166 Saginaw Nouvel 468 2-1 43.000 C 167 Montague 461 2-1 45.667 C 168 Constantine 458 3-0 69.333 C 169 Flint Beecher 449 2-1 37.667 C 170 Blissfield 445 3-0 58.667 C 171 Leslie 442 3-0 56.000 C 172 Boyne City 438 3-0 50.667 C 173 Ithaca 433 2-1 35.333 C 174 Monroe St Mary Catholic Central 431 3-0 77.333 C 175 St Charles 429 3-0 56.000 C 176 Iron Mountain 428 3-0 56.000 C 177 Michigan Center 428 3-0 61.333 C 178 Bangor 421 2-1 37.667 C 179 Kalamazoo Christian 421 3-0 69.333 C 180 Schoolcraft 419 2-1 45.667 C 181 Laingsburg 415 2-1 38.000 C 182 Suttons Bay 415 3-0 56.000 C 183 Whitmore Lake 409 3-0 50.667 C 184 Evart 407 3-0 53.333 C 185 Addison 401 2-1 38.000 C 186 Harper Woods 395 3-0 45.333 C 187 Vandercook Lake 394 2-1 40.667 C 188 Clinton 385 2-1 35.000 C 189 Reese 376 3-0 50.667 C 190 Hudson 372 2-1 38.000 C 191 Wyoming Lee 366 2-1 40.667 C 192 Lawton 364 2-1 37.667 C Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:08 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#7	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 23 09/10/07 2:47 AM	Division VII 193 Gobles 363 2-1 35.333 C 194 Allen Park Cabrini 359 3-0 45.333 C 195 Grass Lake 359 2-1 37.667 C 196 Manistique 359 3-0 56.000 C 197 Lake City 357 3-0 56.000 C 198 Hesperia 356 2-1 37.667 C 199 Whittemore-Prescott 352 2-1 37.667 C 200 Ravenna 350 2-1 38.000 C 201 Springport 348 2-1 37.667 C 202 Breckenridge 327 3-0 58.667 C 203 Centreville 326 2-1 40.667 C 204 Sand Creek 319 2-1 40.667 C 205 Harbor Beach 318 3-0 56.000 C 206 Traverse City St Francis 318 2-1 38.000 C 207 Detroit Loyola 316 2-1 48.333 C 208 Cassopolis 315 3-0 64.000 C 209 Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest 308 2-1 43.000 C 210 Royal Oak Shrine Catholic 307 3-0 40.000 C 211 Ubly 299 2-1 40.333 C 212 Rudyard 291 2-1 38.000 C 213 Merrill 290 2-1 35.333 C 214 St Ignace 289 3-0 48.000 C 215 St Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic 281 3-0 48.000 C 216 Stephenson 280 2-1 40.000 C 217 Reading 274 3-0 42.667 C 218 Rogers City 273 3-0 48.000 C 219 Mendon 269 3-0 61.333 C 220 Pewamo-Westphalia 266 3-0 45.333 C 221 Muskegon Catholic Central 265 2-1 45.333 C 222 Fulton-Middleton 258 3-0 48.000 C 223 Eau Claire 255 3-0 52.667 C 224 Colon 253 2-1 43.333 C Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:10 PM. Edited 1 time.
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AuldSchool		#8	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 24 09/10/07 2:49 AM	Division VIII 225 L'Anse 253 3-0 45.333 C 226 Onekama 245 2-1 21.667 D 227 Marion 244 2-1 32.667 D 228 Deckerville 241 3-0 50.667 D 229 Pittsford 239 3-0 45.333 D 230 Powers North Central 233 2-1 24.667 D 231 Mio 228 2-1 27.000 D 232 Climax-Scotts 227 3-0 48.000 D 233 Martin 223 3-0 58.667 D 234 Webberville 220 3-0 42.667 D 235 Lawrence 216 2-1 37.333 D 236 Central Lake 211 3-0 45.333 D 237 Peck 210 3-0 48.000 D 238 Cedarville 205 3-0 37.333 D 239 Crystal Falls Forest Park 203 3-0 45.333 D 240 Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 203 3-0 45.333 D 241 Beal City 199 2-1 37.667 D 242 Waterford Our Lady 199 3-0 53.333 D 243 Kinde-North Huron 193 3-0 42.667 D 244 Frankfort 190 3-0 58.667 D 245 Fowler 182 3-0 53.333 D 246 Hillman 181 2-1 32.667 D 247 Baraga 177 2-1 22.000 D 248 Bellaire 176 2-1 37.333 D 249 Lake Linden-Hubbell 160 3-0 48.000 D 250 Litchfield 156 2-1 30.000 D 251 Pickford 146 2-1 24.667 D 252 Iron Mountain North Dickinson 140 3-0 45.333 D 253 Waldron 138 3-0 34.667 D 254 Ewen-Trout Creek 117 3-0 42.667 D 255 Gaylord St Mary 110 2-1 32.333 D 256 Redford Covenant 84 2-1 48.333 D Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/10/07 9:11 PM. Edited 1 time.
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kaycob		#9	[url]	[-]
Senior Posts: 17 09/10/07 8:04 AM Forum Donor	At first glance, D-4 might pretty darn good playoff to watch this year.
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TNTDyno		#10	[url]	[-]
All-Searn 2nd Team Posts: 1029 09/10/07 8:04 AM South-Central Mich. Forum Donor	Thanks, AuldSchool, this is great work. I know its early, but you are correct, playoff fever starts quickly. "The common man revels in HAVING WON. The champion finds his satisfaction in WINNING." - F.H. Yost
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Mr NCAA		#11	[url]	[-]
All-Searn Hall of Fame Posts: 4488 09/10/07 8:23 AM MHSAA Football Stats	While I love AuldSchool's work, I think that he needs a new set of assumptions. I say this since Divison 1 is off again by at least 3 teams. Milford's school number has never been in the division 1 playoffs. Last year these projections were off as well. So I just suggest that he does a new set of assumptions something along the line that he does for the Class D teams as well. Here are the differences between AuldSchool's projections and my average division breakpoints: Division 1 = +10 Division 2 = -4 Division 3 = same Division 4 = +6 Division 5 = +7 Division 6 = +14 Division 7 = +1 Division 8 = -2 I just don't want people to say that Dearborn has a shot at being in the division 1 (I guess that I put the wrong number down = see Markowski's comment that I made) playoffs again like last year. Tom Markowski even said that Dearborn had a shot in being in division 1 playoffs when in fact it wasn't even a close call. Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 09/10/07 10:03 AM. Edited 4 times.
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ColonelKVC		#12	[url]	[-]
All-Searn 2nd Team Posts: 1274 09/10/07 10:18 AM	Perhaps this quote from Auldie's first post will help: "(Obviously this will not hold true, I know that, you know that, please don't tell me.) This is not a prognostication, this is how the divisions would break if today were 'Selection Sunday' - which we all know it's not. "
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ColonelKVC		#13	[url]	[-]
All-Searn 2nd Team Posts: 1275 09/10/07 11:05 AM	P.S. Mr NCAA, do you or anyone else happen to know what the percentages are for teams who have started out 0-3 and 1-2 making the playoffs?
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trezdustrial		#14	[url]	[-]
All-Searn 2nd Team Posts: 811 09/10/07 12:52 PM West Coast Mod	Dont see a 2-1 Montague team on your list. They usually fall D6.
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Mr NCAA		#15	[url]	[-]
All-Searn Hall of Fame Posts: 4489 09/10/07 3:14 PM MHSAA Football Stats	Perhaps this quote from Auldie's first post will help: "(Obviously this will not hold true, I know that, you know that, please don't tell me.) This is not a prognostication, this is how the divisions would break if today were 'Selection Sunday' - which we all know it's not. Yes, I can read that particular passage on here and recall that he posted caveats like that in the past. I was trying to find a way for division 1 to be more accurate next week and in the future, then I can live with the rest of the division differences. There was so much talk about Dearborn being in the division 1 playoffs that I wanted to put a stop on it this year (Dearborn was team #72 last year and Woodhaven is this year). AuldSchool makes a different assumption for divison 8 to be more accurate so I wanted him to come up with a new assumption for division 1 to be more accurate. So I was only asking him to come up with a way to be slightly more accurate. I didn't complain about which teams may or may not make the playoffs because I read AuldSchool's opening statement. I have never kept track of statistics like that. Here is NumberCrunch's post from last year that I put in the stat area and it starts with week 4. So you might find this information useful starting next week. http://searnfootballforum.yuku.com/topic/923
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AuldSchool		#16	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 25 09/10/07 3:43 PM	trezdustrial wrote: Dont see a 2-1 Montague team on your list. They usually fall D6. A correction has been made on the MHSAA site since yesterday. Now they have a playoff pt ave of 45.666 (when I copied it this morning they were listed as 24.000) so insert them right after Sag Nouvel in DVI. If there are a number of other teams missing due to error I might wait another day next week.
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AuldSchool		#17	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 26 09/10/07 3:56 PM	Mr NCAA wrote: AuldSchool makes a different assumption for divison 8 to be more accurate so I wanted him to come up with a new assumption for division 1 to be more accurate. So I was only asking him to come up with a way to be slightly more accurate. I didn't complain about which teams may or may not make the playoffs because I read AuldSchool's opening statement. If I found a way to be more accurate I would probably still do it this way ALSO (labeling the New Method as AuldSchool's Projection.) This is what the MHSAA would be releasing if they did it this week. I am tempted to go back and compare this year to last (and other years that may still be lurking on my hard drive.) One thing I am sure of is that Mr NCAA is right on his numbers for Div I & II. The bigger schools will get more qualifiers as the season progresses. Example, this week shows no Lowell. They lost the mythical R-P-S and were left off the list.
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BGNasty		#18	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1 09/10/07 6:46 PM	No Gobles?? 2-1
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AuldSchool		#19	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 27 09/10/07 7:46 PM	BGNasty said: No Gobles?? 2-1 Another correction by MHSAA today, was 24.500, now 35.333. Plan on looking for this info next week on Tuesday. Gobles would just squeeze into Div. VI if their number had been correct. Division VII will likely be where they will be in coming weeks.
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AuldSchool		#20	[url]	[-]
Junior Posts: 28 09/10/07 9:16 PM	Thanks to the sharp-eyed fans of Gobles and Montague. I re-did the listings above as MHSAA made mass changes Monday. I probably should have checked some of the averages, but took a lot longer formatting for the new board and didn't pay as much attention to what MHSAA was doing.
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