Win state championships with offense

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Mr NCAA

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11/25/07 8:19 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

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Since aowwt and ColonelKVC said that defense wins state championships, my thesis will be that the teams win with offense. Teams just need an average offense
or better to win the state championship. My scoring stat is better than aowwt's defensive stat since only 15 teams has been less than my average ppg stat.

WHAT IT TAKES OFFENSIVELY TO WIN A STATE CHAMPIONSHIP
#	SCHOOL	YEAR	CL./DIV.	G	PF	PPG
1	Lowell	2004	3	14	663	47.36
2	Constantine	2004	6	14	650	46.43
3	Climax Scotts	2004	8	14	632	45.14
4	Farmington Hills Harrison	2001	3	14	630	45.00
5	Mendon	1982		12	530	44.17
6	Dowagiac	1990	BB	13	574	44.15
7	Frankfort	1990		13	571	43.92
8	Pittsford	1996	DD	13	570	43.85
9	Lake Linden Hubbell	1997		12	518	43.17
10	Traverse City St. Francis	1999	7	14	601	42.93
11	Whittemore Prescott	2000	6	13	558	42.92
12	Jackson Lumen Christi	2001	5	14	598	42.71
13	Farmington Hills Harrison	2000	3	14	597	42.64
14	Hartford	1993	CC	13	546	42.00
15	Zeeland West	2006	4	14	588	42.00
16	Unionville Sebewaing	2004	7	14	581	41.50
17	Farmington Hills Harrison	1988	B	13	537	41.31
18	Muskegon	2006	2	14	575	41.07
19	Orchard Lake St. Mary	1999	4	14	574	41.00
20	Muskegon	2004	2	14	573	40.93
21	East Grand Rapids	2003	3	14	572	40.86
22	East Grand Rapids	2006	3	14	572	40.86
23	Farmington Hills Harrison	1998	A	13	530	40.77
24	Orchard Lake St. Mary	1977	C	12	486	40.50
25	Belding	1994	B	13	526	40.46
26	Belding	1997	B	13	522	40.15
27	Muskegon Oakridge	2005	5	14	560	40.00
28	St. Charles	1999	6	14	559	39.93
29	Kingsley	2005	6	14	558	39.86
30	Lake Linden Hubbell	1992	DD	13	517	39.77
31	Menominee	1998	BB	13	513	39.46
32	Ravenna	1996	C	13	509	39.15
33	Jackson Lumen Christi	2000	5	14	543	38.79
34	Traverse City St. Francis	2003	7	14	541	38.64
35	Crystal Falls Forest Park	2007	8	14	540	38.57
36	Menominee	2006	5	14	539	38.50
37	East Grand Rapids	2002	3	14	537	38.36
38	Traverse City St. Francis	2005	7	14	536	38.29
39	Crystal Falls Forest Park	1975		11	420	38.18
40	Menominee	2007	5	14	528	37.71
41	Kingsford	1993	B	13	490	37.69
42	Iron Mountain	1993	C	13	489	37.62
43	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1981		12	448	37.33
44	New Lothrop	2006	8	14	521	37.21
45	Mendon	2005	8	14	520	37.14
46	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1984	C	12	440	36.67
47	Montrose	1998	CC	13	476	36.62
48	Fowler	1995		13	473	36.38
49	Farmington Hills Harrison	1997	A	13	472	36.31
50	Oxford	1992	BB	13	470	36.15
51	Unionville Sebewaing	1998	C	13	463	35.62
52	Rockford	2004	1	14	498	35.57
53	Marine City	2007	4	14	497	35.50
54	Muskegon Orchard View	2004	4	14	495	35.36
55	Caledonia	2005	3	14	494	35.29
56	Farmington Hills Harrison	1991	BB	13	458	35.23
57	Frankfort	1991		13	458	35.23
58	Marysville	1992	B	13	458	35.23
59	Fowler	1993		13	457	35.15
60	Schoolcraft	1988		13	454	34.92
61	Macomb Dakota	2007	1	14	487	34.79
62	West Branch Ogemaw Heights	1997	BB	13	452	34.77
63	Gobles	1984		12	417	34.75
64	Maple City Glen Lake	1994	DD	13	451	34.69
65	Muskegon	1989	A	13	451	34.69
66	Detroit Catholic Central	2003	1	14	485	34.64
67	Rockford	2005	1	14	484	34.57
68	Beal City	1994		13	449	34.54
69	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1983	C	12	412	34.33
70	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	1990	B	13	446	34.31
71	Farmington Hills Harrison	1989	B	13	443	34.08
72	Mendon	1989		13	443	34.08
73	East Grand Rapids	2007	3	14	475	33.93
74	Jackson Lumen Christi	1996	B	13	439	33.77
75	Midland Dow	1976	A	11	371	33.73
76	Saginaw Nouvel	2006	6	13	437	33.62
77	Mendon	2002	7	13	434	33.38
78	Traverse City St. Francis	1992	C	13	434	33.38
79	Traverse City Central	1985	A	13	430	33.08
80	Schoolcraft	2001	6	14	462	33.00
81	Montrose	2002	5	14	460	32.86
82	Mendon	1995	DD	13	427	32.85
83	Schoolcraft	1989	C	13	426	32.77
84	Ravenna	1994	C	13	425	32.69
85	Walled Lake Western	1996	AA	13	422	32.46
86	Fowler	1996		12	389	32.42
87	Ravenna	1997	C	13	419	32.23
88	Jackson Lumen Christi	1979	B	12	385	32.08
89	Lowell	2002	2	14	449	32.07
90	Chesaning	1998	B	13	416	32.00
91	Marion	1990	DD	13	414	31.85
92	Flint Powers	2005	4	14	444	31.71
93	Jackson Lumen Christi	2003	5	14	443	31.64
94	Macomb Dakota	2006	1	14	443	31.64
95	Orchard Lake St. Mary	1994	CC	13	411	31.62
96	Battle Creek Pennfield	1991	CC	14	439	31.36
97	Portland St. Patrick	1992		13	407	31.31
98	Muskegon Catholic Central	2006	7	14	438	31.29
99	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1982	C	12	374	31.17
100	Detroit Catholic Central	1998	AA	12	373	31.08
101	Muskegon Catholic Central	1990	C	13	404	31.08
102	Farmington Hills Harrison	1999	3	14	435	31.07
103	Monroe Jefferson	1994	BB	13	403	31.00
104	Fulton Middleton	1988	DD	13	402	30.92
105	Marshall	1996	BB	13	402	30.92
106	Mendon	2001	8	14	432	30.86
107	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	2003	8	14	430	30.71
108	Lawrence	1997	DD	13	398	30.62
109	Muskegon Oakridge	1997	CC	13	398	30.62
110	East Grand Rapids	1993	BB	13	395	30.38
111	Grand Ledge	2000	1	14	425	30.36
112	Munising	1980	C	12	362	30.17
113	Saginaw	1999	2	14	419	29.93
114	Ishpeming	1975	C	11	328	29.82
115	Birmingham Brother Rice	2000	2	14	417	29.79
116	Detroit Catholic Central	2001	1	14	415	29.64
117	Mendon	1993	DD	12	355	29.58
118	Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern	1978	C	12	354	29.50
119	Norway	1979		12	353	29.42
120	Detroit Catholic Central	2002	1	14	411	29.36
121	Rochester Adams	2003	2	14	410	29.29
122	Farmington Hills Harrison	1994	A	13	380	29.23
123	Mendon	1999	8	14	408	29.14
124	Crystal Falls Forest Park	1976		11	320	29.09
125	Chesaning	2001	4	14	407	29.07
126	Grandville	1996	A	13	375	28.85
127	Marysville	1986	B	13	375	28.85
128	Erie Mason	1987	C	13	374	28.77
129	Birimiingham Brother Rice	1980	A	12	345	28.75
130	Escanaba	1981	A	12	345	28.75
131	Detroit Country Day	1999	5	14	402	28.71
132	Detroit Country Day	1986	C	13	372	28.62
133	Detroit King	2007	2	14	400	28.57
134	Walled Lake Western	1999	1	14	400	28.57
135	Orchard Lake St. Mary	2000	4	14	399	28.50
136	Iron Mountain	2000	7	14	397	28.36
137	Mendon	2007	7	14	397	28.36
138	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1978		12	340	28.33
139	Detroit Country Day	1995	B	13	368	28.31
140	Martin	1987		13	365	28.08
141	Lansing Catholic Central	1985	C	13	363	27.92
142	East Grand Rapids	1976	B	11	307	27.91
143	Grand Rapids South Christian	2002	4	14	390	27.86
144	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1990	CC	13	361	27.77
145	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1996	CC	13	361	27.77
146	Wyoming Park	1984	B	12	332	27.67
147	Muskegon Reeths Puffer	1992	A	13	359	27.62
148	Birmingham Brother Rice	2005	2	14	380	27.14
149	Lapeer West	1995	A	13	352	27.08
150	East Grand Rapids	1983	B	12	323	26.92
151	Mendon	1991	DD	12	323	26.92
152	Traverse City Central	1988	A	13	349	26.85
153	Elkton Pigeon Bay Port	1981	C	12	322	26.83
154	Three Rivers	2003	4	14	375	26.79
155	East Grand Rapids	1995	BB	13	348	26.77
156	Jackson Lumen Christi	1977	B	12	321	26.75
157	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1987	B	13	347	26.69
158	Negaunee	2002	6	14	373	26.64
159	Ravenna	2003	6	14	373	26.64
160	Detroit Catholic Central	1995	AA	13	345	26.54
161	Fowler	1998		13	344	26.46
162	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	2002	8	14	369	26.36
163	Detroit Catholic Central	1997	AA	13	341	26.23
164	Muskegon Catholic Central	1991	C	13	340	26.15
165	Traverse City Central	1978	A	12	309	25.75
166	Muskegon Catholic Central	2000	8	14	360	25.71
167	Norway	1980		12	308	25.67
168	Muskegon Catholic Central	1995	C	13	325	25.00
169	Detroit Catholic Central	1992	AA	13	324	24.92
170	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1995	CC	13	324	24.92
171	St. Ignace	1983		12	296	24.67
172	Battle Creek St. Phillip	1985		13	315	24.23
173	Birimingham Brother Rice	1990	A	12	289	24.08
174	East Lansing	1991	A	13	307	23.62
175	Muskegon Catholic Central	1980	B	12	282	23.50
176	Jackson Lumen Christi	2004	5	14	327	23.36
177	Detroit Catholic Central	1979	A	12	277	23.08
178	Farmington Hills Harrison	1981	B	12	277	23.08
179	Birmingham Brother Rice	1977	A	12	273	22.75
180	Muskegon Catholic Central	1982	B	12	272	22.67
181	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1992	CC	13	294	22.62
182	Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central	1991	B	13	294	22.62
183	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1984	A	12	271	22.58
184	Muskegon	1986	A	13	292	22.46
185	Saginaw Nouvel	2007	6	13	290	22.31
186	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1987	A	13	288	22.15
187	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	1986		13	288	22.15
188	Dearborn Divine Child	1985	B	13	287	22.08
189	Farmington Hills Harrison	1993	A	13	286	22.00
190	Dearborn Divine Child	1975	B	11	237	21.55
191	Flat Rock	1976	C	11	236	21.45
192	Detroit Catholic Central	1990	AA	13	277	21.31
193	Mount Clemens Chippewa Valley	2001	2	14	297	21.21
194	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	2001	7	13	268	20.62
195	Birimingham Brother Rice	1983	A	12	245	20.42
196	Ishpeming	1979	C	12	245	20.42
197	Saginaw Arthur Hill	1991	AA	13	256	19.69
198	Farmington Hills Harrison	1982	A	12	231	19.25
199	Detroit St. Martin Deporres	1988	C	13	248	19.08
200	Warren Woods	1978	B	12	220	18.33
201	Flint Holy Rosary	1977		12	218	18.17
202	Livonia Franklin	1975	A	11	196	17.82
203	Troy	1994	AA	13	226	17.38
204	Dearborn Fordson	1993	AA	13	222	17.08
	TOTAL			2,653	83,881	31.62

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/26/09 3:32 PM. Edited 1 time.

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eagleCHAMP05

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11/25/07 11:25 PM

Are you saying that you can win a championship with an average offense and a terrible defense?

It's okay when you're respected, but when you're feared, that's when you've got the power.--Frank Lucas

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Mr NCAA

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11/26/07 12:01 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

My statement is just as logical as the one that aowwt and ColonelKVC used. Another way of putting it is that the teams need at least an average offense to win the state championship.

Is aowwt and ColonelKVC saying that teams can win a championship with a below average offense since you seem to be implyng that as well? I showed that only a few teams can get away with that. In fact I didn't witness each team below that threshold, but most of the ones that I'm familiar with were ball control time management freaks.

The average state championship team scored 31.62 ppg, which puts the defense on the sidelines quite often. The median is 31.035, which is close to that mark as well.

18 teams are now above aowwt's defensive stat. Only 15 are below my stat. If I said 21 points, then I could chop off 4 teams, but won't do that since I want to include my real average. So I'm pointing out that my stat is slightly more accurate than aowwt's and ColonelKVC's defensive stat.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/26/07 12:22 AM. Edited 3 times.

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Mr NCAA

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11/26/07 1:45 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

I noticed an error in the number of games played for Battle Creek Pennfield before someone mentions it. In the next chart I'm doing it will eliminate the number of games played, but have the won loss records for the state championship teams, offensive and defensive points, plus the points per game averages in those categories with the point differential included. Plus the sum missed the last line (Dearborn Fordson) for whatever reason when I produced it so that will change the average as well.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/26/07 1:51 AM. Edited 2 times.

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ColonelKVC

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11/28/07 8:36 AM

Mr NCAA wrote:
(Are) aowwt and ColonelKVC saying that teams can win a championship with a below average offense since you seem to be implyng that as well?

No.

We're saying that if your defense is weak, you're not winning a state title.

However, if your offense is weak, you can win a state title.

At least statistically, that seems to be true. On the other hand, I believe that these teams who won with a statistically weak offense had such statistics most likely because they played in a grind-it-out, simple offense. They had good players who could still control the ball against good defenses. Even in CC's heyday, they didn't score a bunch. They'd get the ball to open a game, go score, and there'd be 2 or 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter.

Basically, what I'm saying (and aowwt can agree or disagree) is that, in general, you don't have to be a high-scoring team to win a state title, but you darn well better keep the other team from scoring.

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Mr NCAA

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11/28/07 9:17 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

18 teams are now above aowwt's defensive stat. Only 15 are below my stat.

However, if your offense is weak, you can win a state title.

At least statistically, that seems to be true

Even in CC's heyday, they didn't score a bunch.

You are going to have to change aowwt's defensive stat of 14 ppg in order to be better than my offensive stat. So statisically my offensive stat is still slightly better than aowwt's defensive stat. You didn't even look at the chart since only one Detroit CC team scored less than my ppg average is.

I just did some interesting research on Detroit CC. They scored over 22 ppg twice and didn't win the state championship. However, they lost in the finals twice when they didn't average my 22 ppg either. Plus they only missed the playoffs once when they average the 22 ppg. I'm not going to add them up but Detroit CC missed the playoffs a ton of times while meeting aowwt's 14 points defensive stat.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/28/07 9:27 AM. Edited 3 times.

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BiasedGuy

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11/28/07 12:22 PM

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MrNCAA, I used one example of DCC when talking about the adage "Defense wins" However, I used it only as a matter of personal experience and not Mathematical Induction, if I may use that term loosely.

Isolating specific examples/samples is not practical when trying to observe a trend. That said, I still cannot support mathematically my thoughts on defense or refute yours on offense.

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aowwt

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11/29/07 2:53 PM

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I hate to say it but my spread ran from 1 point to 18 points. The offensive spread runs from 17 to 47 points. Hence I just dont see how offense wins championships. Statistically you would want something that has a little deviation as possible. Offense has a deviation of 30 points. Defense has a deviation of 17. Defense has a 50% reduction of deviation over offense. I would say offense matters in that you have to score on avg 17 points but defensively you have to keep them below 14 to have any real shots. So if we would go with those two numbers along with the lowest point spread you might be onto something but then its getting to be really too statty to me. I prefer simple stats that are easy to understand and to explain. So thats why the defense is used.

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Mr NCAA

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11/29/07 4:27 PM

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Your average defensive team gave up 8.82 ppg. Your bottom team is rated at 17.77 ppg. This makes the worst team 2.015 times from the average.

My offensive teams averaged 31.56 ppg. My top team is 47.36 ppg. This makes the top team 1.501 times from the average.

So my offensive stat has a tighter fit.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/29/07 5:42 PM. Edited 2 times.

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aowwt

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11/29/07 4:33 PM

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When I took stats in HS, deviation was always a key item. The amount of devation was the considered the most important part. To give you an example of the stuff we learned we will look at a dart board game.

If you have 104 darts and you throw them indvidually, yours would have darts all over similar to mine. But where your center of group is compared to the rest of your darts it would be larger compared to mine. That is called Accuracy or standard deviation. The Defense has a smaller standard deviation which is what all stat people are looking for. The smaller the deviation the more accurate it is.

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Mr NCAA

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11/29/07 4:43 PM

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Your standard deviation in this case doesn't work. This is because the defense can go as low as 0 while the offense has no upside. So this is why your theory of standard deviation can't be applied to points scored and points allowed unless you are just comparing teams within that individual category. Percentage wise the offensive grouping is by far superior.

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EKDAD

offense...

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11/29/07 5:13 PM

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In my very humble opinion, I think John Shillito would agree with Mr. NCAA. At least that is my experience with his football philosophy. They usually just out slug everyone... and put up tons of points on you. They also give up a ton of points. Hoogland prefers the old bend don't break... 52 defense. Keep everyone in front of you. Teams like Rockford just tera it up the middle and little quick hitters move the sticks and put up points on this defense. When John was here at EK, it certainly was exciting offensively averaging 14 points per quarter and yet fairly disappointing on defense allowing teams to hang in there until we wore them down in the third quarter...

I am not a fan of the tight T, however, I am a John Shillito fan ... he is a great guy and he is by far the best offensive line coach in the midwest, and his tight T is a tough offense to stop.

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ColonelKVC

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11/29/07 11:46 PM

EKDAD wrote:

In my very humble opinion, I think John Shillito would agree with Mr. NCAA. At least that is my experience with his football philosophy. They usually just out slug everyone... and put up tons of points on you. They also give up a ton of points. Hoogland prefers the old bend don't break... 52 defense. Keep everyone in front of you. Teams like Rockford just tera it up the middle and little quick hitters move the sticks and put up points on this defense. When John was here at EK, it certainly was exciting offensively averaging 14 points per quarter and yet fairly disappointing on defense allowing teams to hang in there until we wore them down in the third quarter...

I am not a fan of the tight T, however, I am a John Shillito fan ... he is a great guy and he is by far the best offensive line coach in the midwest, and his tight T is a tough offense to stop.

Even though Shillito has been very successful, one could argue he hasn't won multiple state titles because his teams play defense as an afterthought.

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Mr NCAA

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11/30/07 1:32 AM

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I'm giving up except for this last comment:

DCC is 4 times more likely not to make the playoffs under aowwt's and ColonelKVC's defensive stat compared to Mr. NCAA's offensive stat. The team has to make the playoffs in order to even a have shot at winning a state championship. So Mach should have been paying more attention to the offense LOL!!!!

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/30/07 1:38 AM. Edited 1 time.

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aowwt

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11/30/07 1:34 AM

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plus as much as I hate to say it, but that defense that hoogland has been using over the years is identical to the one I played under back in the mid 90's. The sad thing is that he has used the same signals in each game since then as well. My teams were the ones that came up with them hehe. In anycase I still think offense may win a few games but it takes defense to get you through the playoffs. Now colonel did mention the factor of offenses becoming more potent. I just dont have the facts at hand to really think about it. Maybe in the future I will look at it but not right now.

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Mr NCAA

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11/30/07 1:41 AM

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This is just one team that I'm familiar with. Mio is down 270 or so points from just two years ago.

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aowwt

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11/30/07 1:49 AM

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I am not positive since I dont have the numbers for DCC since 03 but if thier defense has not following the defensive goals of mine then maybe thats why they havent won a state championship? hmm

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Mr NCAA

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11/30/07 4:59 AM

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DCC gave up less than 9 ppg this year and didn't win the state championship. Obviously you and ColonelKVC don't want to read my threads on here.

http://searnfootballforum.yuku.com/reply/14898/t/Some-Stats-to-through-at-you.html#reply-14898

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 11/30/07 5:04 AM. Edited 1 time.

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BiasedGuy

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11/30/07 7:31 AM

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I have to agree with the Colonel's point to EKdad regarding Coach Shilito. Great coach that he is, the argument may be made that perhaps his teams would have won more state titles if his teams played more D. Am I correct that his teams are 1 out of 4 in Finals games?

And while I want to hang onto the 'conventional wisdom' that suggests defense wins championships, I have to laugh at MrNCAA's comment - "So Mach should have been paying more attention to the offense" as that is a thought many of us have had watching games over the years. Yeah, that gave me a chuckle too...

Still it is very interesting to note that in this time of multiple schemes, varied offenses - some pass happy etc, that CC was as close to the brass ring again by playing solid D with a conservative O. Just when people are ready to write off 'smash mouth football' there it is again, up in your grill.

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Mr NCAA

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07/11/08 8:51 PM

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To say that teams didn't score back in the olden days just doesn't make any sense to me based on this from the MHSAA record book:

Season - Average Score
66.4 - Detroit University School, 1908 (7-1-0), 465 points
62.6 - Lansing Central, 1918 (8-0-0), 501 points
62.4 - Muskegon, 1912 (7-1-0), 499
61.3 - Lansing Central, 1917 (7-0-1), 490
57.1 - Morenci, 1949 (9-0-0), 514
55.3 - Muskegon Orchard View, 1999 (13-1-0), 774
54.4 - Frankenmuth, 1966 (8-0-0), 435
50.8 - Menominee, 1929 (8-0-0), 407
50.6 - Battle Creek Pennfield, 1992 (11-1-0), 607
50.4 - Muskegon Orchard View, 1998 (10-1-0), 554
49.6 - Homer, 2005 (11-1-0), 595
49.2 - Saginaw Arthur Hill, 1973 (9-0-0), 443
48.3 - Climax-Scotts, 2005 (10-1-0), 531
48.1 - Hamtramck, 1959 (8-0-0), 385
47.6 - East Kentwood, 2002 (13-1-0) 667
47.5 - Lake Odessa, 1919 (8-0-0), 380

7 out of 16 teams on this list are before 1950. In fact, the top 5 teams are pre 1950. So the old teams could score.

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BiasedGuy

#20

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1337

07/12/08 7:22 AM

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I still remember us going round and round on this one. I know this is not the point of this recent post of yours, but to the original point - Look at EK's gawdy offensive production in 2002. How did DCC win the state championship then? With defense and cutting EK's offensive output almost in half that game. (If I recall correctly EK's avg ppg was actually higher in the playoffs than regular season)

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Win state championships with offense

Win state championships with offense