Play-off Points Divisions Wk 8

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AuldSchool

Play-off Points Divisions Wk 8

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1007

10/18/09 6:35 PM

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Right now there are 176 qualifiers. Eighty teams were chosen by play-off point average from among the 189 schools who may win a 6th game or qualify with 5-4 records. Some 5-3 teams were passed by some 4-4 teams while choosing those with the highest averages. These 4-4 teams already have an average that should get them in. If your 5-3 team is not on this list it is vital that they get a sixth victory.

It looks like there will be between 10-20 5-4 teams.

Needless to say if those 4-4 teams don't win in week nine they will not make the play-offs. Some 4-4 teams not on this list will win next week and increase their averages to pass some on this list.

EnrRank	Division I	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
1	Sterling Heights Stevenson	2789	8	0	114.000	A
2	Utica Eisenhower	2745	5	3	70.875	A
3	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2698	7	1	91.196	A
4	Clarkston	2634	8	0	110.571	A
5	Rockford	2630	8	0	117.000	A
6	East Kentwood	2597	5	3	73.071	A
7	Grand Blanc	2526	8	0	116.000	A
8	Howell	2461	7	1	97.875	A
9	Macomb Dakota	2438	6	2	84.375	A
10	Lake Orion	2407	7	1	95.821	A
11	Dearborn Fordson	2380	8	0	103.000	A
13	Detroit Southeastern	2328	8	0	113.429	A
17	Northville	2217	5	3	58.250	A
18	Plymouth	2212	6	2	79.500	A
19	Troy	2181	5	3	66.571	A
21	Westland John Glenn	2127	7	1	92.750	A
23	Detroit Catholic Central	2094	8	0	106.571	A
24	Livonia Stevenson	2091	6	2	78.125	A
27	Detroit Cass Tech	2051	4	3	63.821	A
29	Roseville	2048	5	3	63.750	A
30	Pontiac	2008	7	1	93.125	A
33	Grandville	1941	4	4	58.875	A
34	Holt	1935	7	1	93.875	A
39	Canton	1883	7	1	100.625	A
40	Grand Haven	1873	7	1	94.875	A
42	Romeo	1850	6	2	81.500	A
50	Warren Mott	1788	7	1	87.625	A
54	Grand Ledge	1745	6	2	75.125	A
55	Jackson	1724	5	3	59.750	A
58	Dearborn	1709	5	3	65.000	A
62	Temperance Bedford	1700	6	2	80.500	A
66	Walled Lake Central	1665	7	1	88.875	A

Later in the week I will try to put together a listing that shows what the breakdown would look like if the 'favorite' wins in the contests that involve the 5-3 and 4-4 teams.

I do have enough info to answer most questions about specific teams. I'll deal with two (Zeeland East & GR Catholic Central) I've had phone calls about after the eight divisions.

All play-off qualifications are based on current records only. No predictions of future games are used. The required 6 wins will be modified to reflect games played, and the number 'auto' qualifiers will be stated in first post of the thread. Then the MHSAA rules will be applied for adding or subtracting.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/19/09 4:31 AM. Edited 4 times.

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1008

10/19/09 2:48 AM

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EnrRank	Division II	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
67	Southgate Anderson	1663	6	2	74.375	A
68	Brownstown Woodhaven	1662	5	3	63.750	A
69	Port Huron	1658	5	3	63.750	A
70	Warren DeLaSalle	1650	4	4	57.829	A
73	Grosse Pointe South	1639	6	2	81.375	A
75	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	1628	5	3	63.393	A
76	Midland	1622	7	1	83.875	A
77	East Detroit	1614	5	3	63.875	A
88	Southfield	1536	5	3	64.768	A
89	Dearborn Edsel Ford	1514	7	1	95.875	A
93	Muskegon	1501	5	3	73.125	A
94	Flushing	1483	5	3	64.875	A
95	Rochester Adams	1483	6	2	83.768	A
98	Grosse Pointe North	1455	5	3	65.875	A
105	Birmingham Brother Rice	1390	5	3	70.081	A
107	Detroit Osborn	1389	5	3	63.304	A
109	Farmington	1386	5	3	61.768	A
110	Portage Central	1380	7	1	87.625	A
115	Bay City Western	1331	6	2	71.625	A
116	Detroit Martin Luther King	1329	6	2	77.946	A
118	Swartz Creek	1317	5	3	63.125	A
119	Caledonia	1313	6	2	77.000	A
120	Wyandotte Roosevelt	1312	6	2	73.500	A
124	Lowell	1297	7	1	90.875	A
128	Portage Northern	1287	7	1	90.750	A
132	Farmington Hills Harrison	1252	5	3	61.143	A
133	Berkley	1241	5	3	58.625	A
142	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	1174	7	1	84.875	A
145	Fenton	1171	5	3	67.000	A
147	Redford Thurston	1164	6	2	74.250	A
150	Grand Rapids Northview	1145	5	3	63.375	A
154	Auburn Hills Avondale	1127	5	3	59.625	A

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/19/09 2:51 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

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10/19/09 2:52 AM

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EnrRank	Division III	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
157	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	1111	6	2	69.125	A
159	Lapeer West	1103	7	1	94.875	A
160	St Johns	1101	6	2	71.625	A
162	Gibraltar Carlson	1085	6	2	74.500	A
163	Mt Pleasant	1083	8	0	107.000	A
164	St Clair Shores Lake Shore	1080	7	1	91.875	A
167	Mason	1061	7	1	79.625	A
169	Hazel Park	1055	6	2	76.000	A
170	Adrian	1053	7	1	84.250	A
181	Detroit Central	1010	6	1	91.000	A
183	Carleton Airport	1000	7	1	83.750	A
190	Orchard Lake St Mary's	986	4	3	63.964	B
191	St Joseph	986	6	2	77.500	B
195	Byron Center	971	7	1	83.750	B
196	Petoskey	968	7	1	85.750	B
200	Richland Gull Lake	955	5	3	55.125	B
201	Fowlerville	953	7	1	79.875	B
203	Hastings	943	6	2	67.125	B
206	Cadillac	939	7	1	88.708	B
207	Escanaba	931	7	1	79.625	B
208	East Grand Rapids	930	8	0	111.571	B
210	Chelsea	928	6	2	73.500	B
211	Highland Park	925	5	3	58.375	B
214	Milan	923	5	3	56.625	B
216	Grand Rapids Forest Hills Eastern	917	5	3	69.000	B
217	Stevensville Lakeshore	917	7	1	80.750	B
218	DeWitt	911	8	0	98.000	B
226	Linden	885	8	0	109.000	B
227	Dearborn Divine Child	876	5	3	61.625	B
229	Battle Creek Harper Creek	875	5	3	61.125	B
233	Detroit Crockett	859	7	1	87.196	B
234	Melvindale	851	8	0	106.000	B

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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10/19/09 2:53 AM

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EnrRank	Division IV	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
236	North Branch	833	5	3	53.250	B
237	Ogemaw Heights	831	7	1	81.750	B
238	Lansing Sexton	827	6	2	76.375	B
240	Holland Christian	825	7	1	82.375	B
241	Spring Lake	821	7	1	79.375	B
243	Coopersville	802	5	3	54.125	B
244	Marine City	801	8	0	104.000	B
249	Dearborn Heights Annapolis	784	6	2	63.000	B
254	Madison Heights Lamphere	778	5	3	52.625	B
255	Marshall	777	7	1	90.750	B
257	Three Rivers	771	8	0	92.000	B
259	Marysville	768	5	3	57.500	B
261	Muskegon Orchard View	761	5	3	53.375	B
262	Hamilton	757	7	1	87.750	B
263	Detroit Douglass	756	6	1	82.589	B
264	Croswell-Lexington	754	6	2	68.125	B
265	Zeeland West	750	5	3	58.250	B
266	Fremont	749	7	1	76.750	B
268	Goodrich	744	6	2	68.500	B
272	Lansing Catholic	721	5	3	52.125	B
273	Cheboygan	720	6	2	61.125	B
274	Yale	718	6	2	68.000	B
277	Richmond	708	5	3	55.875	B
278	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	703	6	2	64.250	B
279	Big Rapids	695	7	1	69.875	B
284	Battle Creek Pennfield	678	7	1	63.750	B
288	Otsego	675	5	3	56.000	B
291	Detroit Country Day	661	5	3	61.768	B
292	Kingsford	661	6	2	78.363	B
294	Williamston	654	7	1	74.625	B
298	Flint Powers Catholic	637	4	4	50.750	B
299	Grand Rapids West Catholic	635	8	0	87.000	B

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1011

10/19/09 2:55 AM

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EnrRank	Division V	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
304	Almont	620	5	3	55.625	B
305	Essexville Garber	619	7	1	82.500	B
307	Saginaw Swan Valley	618	7	1	76.875	B
309	Portland	612	6	2	66.750	B
310	Dowagiac	611	7	1	77.875	B
318	Ovid-Elsie	588	8	0	94.000	B
321	Pinconning	579	5	3	65.125	B
322	Freeland	577	5	3	54.500	B
324	Capac	573	5	3	56.875	B
325	Onsted	572	7	1	70.875	B
326	Durand	570	5	3	51.750	B
334	Menominee	561	6	2	66.375	B
335	Madison Heights Madison	560	8	0	101.000	B
336	Stockbridge	560	7	1	71.875	B
338	Muskegon Heights	558	6	2	60.556	B
341	Millington	546	7	1	78.750	B
342	Wyoming Kelloggsville	546	8	0	88.000	B
344	Hopkins	538	6	2	65.250	B
348	Jackson Lumen Christi	532	7	1	83.750	B
350	Muskegon Oakridge	531	5	3	51.875	B
351	Houghton Lake	528	5	3	51.375	B
352	Clawson	526	5	3	50.875	B
354	Berrien Springs	520	6	2	59.000	B
355	Detroit University Prep	517	5	3	52.250	B
358	Lake Fenton	512	6	2	62.375	B
359	Gladstone	506	5	3	58.000	B
361	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	502	7	1	67.750	B
362	Buchanan	502	5	3	54.125	B
367	Carrollton	495	7	1	68.750	B
371	Shepherd	488	5	3	52.125	B
376	Flint Beecher	478	8	0	91.000	C
377	North Muskegon	475	5	3	49.000	C

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1012

10/19/09 2:56 AM

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EnrRank	Division VI	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
378	Harper Woods Chandler	473	6	2	55.000	C
379	Clare	468	8	0	89.000	C
381	Negaunee	466	6	2	59.125	C
385	Elk Rapids	463	5	3	51.375	C
386	Morley-Stanwood	461	8	0	91.000	C
391	Laingsburg	457	7	1	57.875	C
393	Olivet	456	6	2	61.125	C
398	Sanford Meridian	450	7	1	77.875	C
399	Michigan Center	445	5	3	44.875	C
400	Harper Woods	444	5	3	54.375	C
405	Montague	438	8	0	88.000	C
406	Iron Mountain	436	6	2	62.964	C
410	Bronson	431	6	2	51.625	C
411	Constantine	431	6	2	53.375	C
417	Ithaca	424	7	1	68.750	C
418	Monroe St Mary Catholic Central	423	7	1	84.750	C
419	Calumet	421	7	1	66.071	C
420	Blissfield	419	6	2	59.625	C
426	Charlevoix	407	5	3	46.000	C
427	Schoolcraft	407	7	1	67.625	C
429	Manchester	405	8	0	78.000	C
433	Suttons Bay	401	6	2	57.125	C
434	Boyne City	399	6	2	57.661	C
436	Sandusky	392	6	2	50.250	C
437	St Charles	392	7	1	68.750	C
439	Clinton	391	7	1	69.875	C
443	Ecorse	386	7	1	73.143	C
445	Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker	384	6	2	54.500	C
450	Reese	380	7	1	67.500	C
453	Union City	375	6	2	51.625	C
456	Adrian Madison	367	5	3	44.125	C
457	Grass Lake	367	5	3	44.625	C

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1013

10/19/09 2:58 AM

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CHANGED

EnrRank	Division VII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
459	Watervliet	361	7	1	64.375	C
460	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	359	6	2	47.250	C
464	Burton Bendle	356	5	3	43.125	C
465	Addison	354	5	3	45.125	C
466	Lake City	352	6	2	53.875	C
474	Lawton	346	7	1	59.750	C
475	Ishpeming Westwood	343	5	2	47.536	C
476	Hudson	341	8	0	92.000	C
479	Cassopolis	337	6	2	55.125	C
484	McBain	328	5	3	44.750	C
485	Reading	323	8	0	70.000	C
492	Brown City	315	6	2	47.500	C
493	Ravenna	314	6	2	60.375	C
494	Whittemore-Prescott	314	7	1	61.500	C
496	Detroit Loyola	312	5	3	51.875	C
498	Traverse City St Francis	309	8	0	80.000	C
500	Royal Oak Shrine Catholic	308	5	3	47.500	C
506	Ishpeming	304	6	2	59.089	C
508	Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest	303	6	2	47.000	C
511	Indian River Inland Lakes	298	5	3	42.250	C
513	Iron River West Iron County	296	6	2	51.946	C
514	Potterville	296	8	0	72.000	C
515	Decatur	287	5	3	48.125	C
518	Blanchard Montabella	279	6	2	48.500	C
520	Norway	274	6	2	54.768	C
523	Genesee	270	8	0	68.000	C
525	Ottawa Lake Whiteford	269	5	3	50.250	C
527	Petersburg-Summerfield	266	8	0	76.000	C
529	Rudyard	262	7	1	69.708	C
530	Saugatuck	260	7	1	57.875	C
531	Ubly	258	8	0	75.000	C
533	White Pigeon	252	7	1	65.875	C

Note Changed Div VII - Addison 5-3 45.125 in, dropped Merrill 5-3 42.250 (Indian River Inland Lakes has better opp win% than Merrill or Pewamo-Westphalia)

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/19/09 12:59 PM. Edited 2 times.

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1014

10/19/09 2:59 AM

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EnrRank	Division VIII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
535	Rogers City	244	6	2	48.125	C
537	Mendon	241	8	0	79.000	C
546	Waterford Our Lady	231	7	1	60.054	C
547	New Lothrop	229	6	2	50.625	C
552	Pittsford	224	5	3	47.125	C
553	Climax-Scotts	223	8	0	68.000	D
554	Fulton	222	6	2	51.625	D
557	Deckerville	220	4	4	35.750	D
558	Muskegon Catholic Central	217	4	4	44.054	D
560	Eau Claire	216	6	2	45.403	D
561	Central Lake	213	5	3	39.125	D
562	Beal City	212	7	1	66.875	D
565	Johannesburg-Lewiston	209	7	1	53.375	D
568	Mio	205	6	2	41.375	D
571	Colon	201	7	1	59.875	D
574	Crystal Falls Forest Park	195	7	1	56.750	D
579	Pickford	185	5	3	40.821	D
581	Bark River-Harris	183	7	1	51.036	D
582	Cedarville	176	7	1	52.036	D
583	Fowler	175	4	4	33.750	D
584	Frankfort	173	6	2	49.000	D
585	Ontonagon	173	5	3	40.375	D
587	Sterling Heights Parkway Christian	172	6	2	46.000	D
588	Battle Creek St Philip	171	5	3	38.125	D
591	Hillman	166	6	2	43.375	D
598	Lake Linden-Hubbell	154	8	0	65.000	D
600	Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart	151	7	1	60.750	D
602	Iron Mountain North Dickinson	139	7	1	60.036	D
607	St Joseph Michigan Lutheran	125	5	3	33.268	D
608	Ashley	123	5	3	39.750	D
614	Gaylord St Mary	89	8	0	68.000	D
618	Manistee Catholic Central	58	7	1	47.929	D

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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AuldSchool

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1015

10/19/09 3:51 AM

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Over the weekend I was asked about two teams in similar circumstances, both with four losses.

GR Catholic Central (B 48.750) 4-4 - week 9 opponent GR Forest Hills Eastern 5-3. A win over FHE earns 64 play-off points and 40 bonus points. With all CC's opponents playing each other CC stands to gain another 11 bonus points. With no upsets CC's new average would be 56.111 which usually gets a B team in at 5-4.

Zeeland East 4-4 (A 49.500) - week 9 opponent Wyoming Rogers 0-8. A win here earns 64 po pts but no bonus points for beating Rogers. For ZE to earn maximum bonus points, some games are key. FHE beating CC would earn a bonus point, Holland Christian needs to beat Byron Center for an extra 7, and Hudsonville Unity Christian needs to beat Zeeland West for another 7. Best case scenario for Zeeland East would result in an average of 53.111, but since ZE is class A they need a much better average.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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SnoozeToMe

#9

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Senior

Posts: 217

10/19/09 9:22 AM

Playoff Maps and Brackets

Auld,

I think your database has something against Addison. It looks like you skipped them again (like week 5).

That would bump either Merrill or Indian River Inland Lakes, both of which have 42.25 POP values.

Maps, Brackets and More:
Snooze2You.com

Last Edited By: SnoozeToMe 10/19/09 9:32 AM. Edited 1 time.

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trezdustrial

#10

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All-Searn 2nd Team

Posts: 1499

10/19/09 10:02 AM

West Coast Mod

The main Division that will change things is D2 with a whopping 18 teams on the auto qualify bubble.

D5 has 13 and D4 has 10 teams on the bubble.

For comparison....the rest of the divisions have between 6 and 8.

Last Edited By: trezdustrial 10/19/09 10:08 AM. Edited 2 times.

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Mr NCAA

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Posts: 7183

10/19/09 12:43 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

This is how the pro rated automatic qualifiers divison breakpoints look like this week. I am still considering Concord Grapes to be in as automatic qualifier since they will be getting an automatic forfeit win this week.

MHSAA AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
# SCHOOL CL. SEN
1 Sterling Heights Stevenson A 2,789
2 Ann Arbor Pioneer A 2,698
3 Clarkston A 2,634
4 Rockford A 2,630
5 Grand Blanc A 2,526
6 Howell A 2,461
7 Macomb Dakota A 2,438
8 Lake Orion A 2,407
9 Dearborn Fordson A 2,380
10 Detroit Southeastern A 2,328
11 Plymouth A 2,212
12 Westland John Glenn A 2,127
13 Detroit Catholic Central A 2,094
14 Livonia Stevenson A 2,091
15 Pontiac A 2,006
16 Holt A 1,935
17 Canton A 1,883
18 Grand Haven A 1,873
19 Romeo A 1,850
20 Warren Mott A 1,788
21 Grand Ledge A 1,745
22 Temperance Bedford A 1,700
PRO RATED DIVISION 1 BREAKPOINT
23 Walled Lake Central A 1,666
24 Southgate Aquinas A 1,663
25 Grosse Pointe South A 1,639
26 Midland A 1,622
27 Dearborn Edsel Ford A 1,514
28 Rochester Adams A 1,483
29 Portage Central A 1,380
30 Bay City Western A 1,331
31 Detroit Martin Luther King A 1,329
32 Caledonia A 1,313
33 Wyandotte A 1,312
34 Lowell A 1,297
35 Portage Northern A 1,287
36 Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills A 1,174
37 Redford Thurston A 1,164
38 Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills A 1,111
39 Lapeer West A 1,103
40 St. Johns A 1,101
41 Gibraltar Carlson A 1,085
42 St. Clair Shores Lake Shore A 1,080
43 Mt. Pleasant A 1,063
44 Mason A 1,061
PRO RATED DIVISION 2 BREAKPOINT
45 Hazel Park A 1,055
46 Adrian A 1,053
47 Detroit Central A 1,010
48 Carleton Airport A 1,000
49 St. Joseph B 986
50 Byron Center B 971
51 Petoskey B 968
52 Fowlerville B 953
53 Hastings B 943
54 Cadillac B 939
55 Escanaba B 931
56 East Grand Rapids B 930
57 Chelsea B 928
58 Stevensville Lakeshore B 917
59 Dewitt B 911
60 Linden B 885
61 Detroit Crockett B 859
62 Melvindale B 851
63 West Branch Ogemaw Heights B 831
64 Lansing Sexton B 827
65 Holland Crhistian B 825
66 Spring Lake B 821
PRO RATED DIVISION 3 BREAKPOINT
67 Marine City B 801
68 Dearborn Heights Annapolis B 784
69 Marshall B 777
70 Three Rivers B 771
71 Hamilton B 757
72 Detroit Douglass B 756
73 Crosswell Lexington B 754
74 Fremont B 749
75 Goodrich B 744
76 Cheboygan B 720
77 Yale B 718
78 Pontiac Notre Dame B 703
79 Big Rapids B 695
80 Battle Creek Pennfield B 678
81 Kingsford B 661
82 Williamston B 654
83 Grand Rapids West Catholic B 635
84 Essexville Garber B 619
85 Saginaw Swan Valley B 618
86 Portland B 612
87 Dowagiac B 611
88 Ovid Elsie B 588
PRO RATED DIVISON 4 BREAKPOINT
89 Onsted B 572
90 Menominee B 561
91 Madison Heights Madison B 560
92 Stockbridge B 560
93 Muskegon Heights B 558
94 Wyoming Kelloggsville B 546
95 Millington B 546
96 Hopklns B 538
97 Jackson Lumen Christi B 532
98 Berrien Springs B 522
99 Lake Fenton B 512
100 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard B 502
101 Carrollton B 495
102 Flint Beecher C 478
103 Harper Woods Chandler C 473
104 Clare C 468
105 Montague C 468
106 Negaunee C 466
107 Morley Stanwood C 461
108 Laingsburg C 457
109 Olivet C 456
110 Sanford Meridian C 450
PRO RATED DIVISON 5 BREAKPOINT
111 Iron Mountain C 436
112 Ithaca C 434
113 Bronson C 431
114 Constantine C 431
115 Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central C 423
116 Blissfield C 422
117 Calumet C 421
118 Schoolcraft C 407
119 Manchester C 405
120 Sutons Bay C 401
121 Boyne City C 399
122 St. Charles C 392
123 Sandusky C 392
124 Clinton C 391
125 Ecorse C 386
126 Elkton Pigeon Bay Port C 384
127 Reese C 380
128 Union City C 375
129 Watervliet C 361
130 Grand Rapids NorthePointe Christian C 359
131 Lake City C 352
132 Lawton C 346
PRO RATED DIVISON 6 BREAKPOINT
133 Hudson C 341
134 Cassopolis C 337
135 Reading C 323
136 Brown City C 315
137 Whittemore Prescott C 314
138 Ravenna C 314
139 Traverse City St. Francis C 309
140 Concord C 305
141 Ishpeming C 304
142 Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest C 303
143 Potterville C 296
144 Iron Mountain West Iron County C 296
145 Blanchard Montabella C 279
146 Norway C 274
147 Genesee C 270
148 Petersburg Summerfield C 266
149 Rudyard C 262
150 Saugatuck C 260
151 Ubly C 258
152 White Piegeon C 252
153 Rogers City C 244
154 Mendon C 241
PRO RATED DIVISON 7 BREAKPOINT
155 Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes C 231
156 New Lothrop C 224
157 Climax Scotts D 223
158 Fulton Middleton D 222
159 Eau Claire D 216
160 Mio D 215
161 Beal City D 212
162 Johannesburg Lewiston D 209
163 Colon D 201
164 Crystal Falls Forest Park D 195
165 Bark River Harris D 183
166 Cedarville D 176
167 Frankfort D 173
168 Sterling Heights Parkway Christian D 172
169 Hillman D 166
170 Hillman D 166
171 Lake Linden Hubbell D 154
172 Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart D 151
173 Iron Mountain North Dickinson D 139
174 Gaylord St. Mary D 89
175 Manistee Catholic Central D 58

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ftballfan

#12

[-]

Junior

Posts: 155

10/19/09 8:11 PM

St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran is also an automatic qualifier because they do not have a game Week 9.

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Mr NCAA

#13

[-]

All-Searn Hall of Fame

Posts: 7191

10/19/09 8:27 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I noticed that after I formed my list. So SJL should be around team #124 and shove every team down 1. The W word editor didn't want to work for my earlier today so I posted it that way.

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Blotto98

#14

[-]

Junior

Posts: 107

10/19/09 9:51 PM

Downriver Mod

24 Southgate Aquinas A 1,663

I'm impressed with Aquinas qualifing since the school closed about 6 years ago.

I think it is Southgate Anderson.

Also is there any chance Melvindale gets bumped down to D4 or is D3 a lock for them at this point?

Last Edited By: Blotto98 10/19/09 9:53 PM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

#15

[-]

All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1023

10/20/09 1:58 AM

Forum Donor

Melvindale is too close to the border and could slip into Div 4.

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Family

#16

[-]

Freshmen
Unranked Walkon

Hi! I'm New Here!

Posts: 1

10/20/09 9:42 AM

AuldSchool,

First off, thanks for the great work you do on this stuff! I've got a quick hypothetical I'd like to run past you...

Having looked at the remaining games of the 13 current five-win Division 5 teams, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see nine of the 13 lose this week. Would this likely result in a few of the larger D6 six-win teams (Clare, Negaunee, Morley-Stanwood, to name three of the top four) getting bumped up to D5?

Thanks!

Family

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AuldSchool

#17

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All-Searn H.M.

Posts: 1026

10/20/09 10:29 AM

Forum Donor

It must be remembered that teams are chosen by class, not division. And while classes are equally chosen on the final selection of 5-4's, They don't show up equally in divisions. Class A ranges Div I -III, Class B ranges through 4 and 5. So Orchard Lake St. Mary's in Div III range is as much a factor as those you mentioned in pushng down the dividing lines. Lines seldom move upward. Now this year I have tried to simulate the historical mix of the play-offs, so I can't say for sure that a team won't move up a spot or two.

As soon as the PSL announces its line-up for this week I'll publish a 'favorites win' that follows the equal mix that the MHSAA uses.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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Throwback

#18

[-]

Sophomore

Posts: 30

10/20/09 10:41 AM

Walled Lake Central is a Division 2 school that, because of it's fine season record, will most likely be placed in the Division 1 playoffs. WLC was soundly beaten by an outstanding Grand Blanc team in a crossover game last Friday. That game pitted an unbeaten Division 1 school (Grand Blanc) versus an unbeaten Division 2 school (WLC). It doesn't seem fair that WLC will be penalized for being at the top of their division by having to play in the next division up in the playoffs.

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Family

#19

[-]

Freshmen
Unranked Walkon

Hi! I'm New Here!

Posts: 2

10/20/09 10:43 AM

AuldSchool wrote:

It must be remembered that teams are chosen by class, not division. And while classes are equally chosen on the final selection of 5-4's, They don't show up equally in divisions. Class A ranges Div I -III, Class B ranges through 4 and 5. So Orchard Lake St. Mary's in Div III range is as much a factor as those you mentioned in pushng down the dividing lines. Lines seldom move upward. Now this year I have tried to simulate the historical mix of the play-offs, so I can't say for sure that a team won't move up a spot or two.

As soon as the PSL announces its line-up for this week I'll publish a 'favorites win' that follows the equal mix that the MHSAA uses.

Thanks for the clarification.

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SnoozeToMe

#20

[-]

Senior

Posts: 226

10/20/09 11:18 AM

Playoff Maps and Brackets

Throwback wrote:
Walled Lake Central is a Division 2 school that, because of it's fine season record, will most likely be placed in the Division 1 playoffs. WLC was soundly beaten by an outstanding Grand Blanc team in a crossover game last Friday. That game pitted an unbeaten Division 1 school (Grand Blanc) versus an unbeaten Division 2 school (WLC). It doesn't seem fair that WLC will be penalized for being at the top of their division by having to play in the next division up in the playoffs.

If Walled Lake Central gets placed in division 1, it will be due to their enrollment only. Their quality of play on the field has nothing to do with the division they end up in.

Once the 256 playoff teams are determined, the 32 with the highest enrollment are placed in division 1. In AuldSchool's projection, WLC is the 32nd largest school, making them the smallest division 1 school. It would be no surprise to see them slip to division 2, where they would be the largest school in that division. We'll have to wait and see.

Maps, Brackets and More:
Snooze2You.com

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